Pot odds tell you what a call costs compared with what you can win. Equity is how often your hand wins. If your equity is bigger than the share of the final pot you are paying for, the call makes money in the long run; if it is smaller, it loses. The rest of this guide shows how to put numbers on both at the table.
The one formula you need
Divide the cost of your call by the size of the pot after you call. The answer is how often you need to win to break even.
Say the pot is £40 and your opponent bets £20. The pot is now £60, and calling costs £20, making the final pot £80. You need to win 20 ÷ 80 = 25% of the time. Players also say you are getting 3 to 1: £60 to win for a £20 call.
Counting your outs
Outs are the unseen cards that should make yours the best hand. On the flop you have seen five cards, your two and three on the board, so 47 are unseen; on the turn, 46 are.
| Draw | Outs | One card to come (turn to river) | Two cards to come (flop to river) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket pair to a set | 2 | 4.3% | 8.4% |
| Gutshot straight draw | 4 | 8.7% | 16.5% |
| Two overcards | 6 | 13.0% | 24.1% |
| Open-ended straight draw | 8 | 17.4% | 31.5% |
| Flush draw | 9 | 19.6% | 35.0% |
| Flush draw plus open-ended straight draw | 15 | 32.6% | 54.1% |
These figures assume every out wins. Overcards only count if pairing one would give you the best hand, and a flush card that pairs the board can give an opponent holding a set a full house.
Worked example: a flush draw on the turn
You hold A♥ 7♥ and the board after the turn is K♥ 9♥ 4♣ 2♠. Your opponent bets £20 into £40, so you need 25% equity to call. Nine hearts are left among 46 unseen cards: 9 ÷ 46 = 19.6%.
Calling wins £60 when the flush comes and loses £20 when it misses: (9/46 × £60) − (37/46 × £20) = −£4.35. Every call like this costs about £4.35 on average, so fold unless you expect to win more later in the hand.
The same draw on the flop, all in
Now make the bet on the flop, K♥ 9♥ 4♣, and suppose the £20 puts your opponent all in, so you see both the turn and the river. Your chance of making the flush is 1 − (38/47 × 37/46) = 35.0%, above the 25% you need. Calling is worth about £7.97 on average.
The rule of 2 and 4
At the table, multiply your outs by 2 with one card to come, or by 4 on the flop when you are all in and will see both cards. Nine outs gives 18% and 36%, close to the exact 19.6% and 35.0%. The shortcut overstates big draws, though: 15 outs by the rule of 4 is 60%, but the real figure is 54.1%.
Implied odds
When your opponent has chips left, you can win more on later streets when you hit. In the turn example, calling breaks even if you win about £22 more on average when the flush comes in, because 9/46 × (£60 + £22.22) = 37/46 × £20. If that extra bet is unlikely to be paid, fold. For the hand values behind all of this, see poker hand rankings.
FAQs
What are pot odds in poker?
Pot odds compare the size of the pot with the cost of a call. If the pot is £60 after your opponent's bet and it costs £20 to call, you're getting 3 to 1, so you need to win at least 25% of the time for the call to break even.
How do you calculate equity in poker?
Equity is your share of the pot based on how often your hand would win at showdown. With a draw, count your outs and divide by the unseen cards: 9 outs with one card to come is 9 ÷ 46, or 19.6%. Equity calculators handle full ranges and ties.
What is the rule of 2 and 4?
It's a shortcut for turning outs into a percentage: multiply your outs by 2 with one card to come, or by 4 on the flop when you'll see both the turn and river. It's close for small draws but overstates big ones: 15 outs is 54.1%, not 60%.